Coronavirus diary.

March 2020 and later.

20 March.

Schools closed today for weeks or months, and the Prime Minister announced that bars, restaurants, gyms, and cafes are also to be closed.

I’m struggling to understand:
first, the difference between the Chinese and Italian experience,
second, the difference between covid-19 and flu,
and third, what my strategy should be.

26 March and later.

I’ve now found the numbers of UK covid-19 deaths, at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Looking at the not-quite-exponential 900 percent increases,
from 1 to 10 total deaths took 7 days,
from 10 to 100 took 6 days,
and from 100 to 1,000 took 10 days.

The worldometers site has data for many other countries.
Here are some counts of the days in the 4 stages from 1 to 10, 100, 1000 and 10,000 total deaths.

In China, -, -, 14,  –
South Korea, 5, 25, -, –
France, 11, 8, 9, 14
Iran, 5, 10, 13, –
Italy, 4, 8, 8, 16
the USA, 3, 13, 8, 12

Spain, 4, 6, 7, 13
the UK, 7, 6, 10, 15
the Netherlands, 6, 7, 11, –
Germany, 6, 8, 10, –
Austria, 10, 8, -, –
Norway, 11, 16, -, –
and Sweden, 5, 9, 18, –

In the first group the first death occurred in February or earlier. The second group reported their first death in March.

4 April.

Since lockdown, the increase in covid-19 deaths in the UK has been almost perfectly exponential.
Perhaps the effect of lockdown will become evident after the recommended two weeks of self-isolation, on 7 April.

11 April and later.

The numbers of covid-19 deaths per week in the UK were:
2, 9, 166, and 582 in the weeks ending 6, 13, 20, and 27 March 2020,
2846, 5353, 5618 and 4930 in the weeks ending 3, 10, 17 and 24 April,
3979, 3110, 2518, and 2103 in the weeks ending 6, 13, 20, and 27 May,
1921, 1400, 1025, and 805 in the weeks ending 3, 10, 17, and 30 June,
661, 577, 454 and 456 in the weeks ending 7, 14, 21, and 28 July,
421, 89, 68 and 68 in the weeks ending 4, 12, 19, and 26 August,
49, 80, 90, 176 and 281 in the weeks ending 2, 9, 16, 23 and 30 Sept,
372, 640, 1003 and 1517 in the weeks ending 7, 14, 21 and 28 October,
2067, 2623, 2909 and 3259 in the weeks ending 4, 11, 18 and 25 November,
3169, 2867, 2954, 3531 and 3497 in the weeks ending 2, 9, 16, 23 and 30 December 2020,
4798, 7421, 8523 and 8597 in the weeks ending 6, 13, 20 and 27 January 2021,
7448, 5516, 4082 and 2814 in the weeks ending 3, 10, 17 and 24 February,
1864, 1204, 844, 551 and 332 in the weeks ending 3, 10, 17, 24 and 31 March,
214, 234, 166, and 153 in the weeks ending 7, 14, 21 and 28 April,
90, 70, 54 and 54 in the weeks ending 5, 12, 19 and 26 May,
46, 66, 66, 101 and 113 in the weeks ending 2, 9, 16, 23 and 30 June,
161, 229, 366, and 498 in the weeks ending 7, 14, 21, and 28 July,
570, 607, 653 and 743 in the weeks ending 4, 11, 18 and 25 August,
739, 932, 973, 974 and 904 in the weeks ending 1, 8, 15, 22 and 29 September,
770, 785, 954 and 1010 in the weeks ending 6, 13, 20, and 27 October,
1140, 1157, 1022 and 926 in the weeks ending 3, 10, 17 and 24 November,
854 and 847 in the weeks ending 1 and 8 December 2021.

These 7-day statistics may be best for trying to understand what’s happening, because the delayed weekend counts are distributed evenly.

In March and April 2020 they were based on NHS data. At the Downing St press conference on 9 April it was stated that these data, based on hospital admissions, are comparable with international data, and are available more quickly than the more comprehensive ONS data.

After April 2020 the counts of UK covid-19 deaths included deaths “in all settings”, not just NHS records of hospital deaths. On June 23 a further 109 deaths which had occurred between April and June were added to the data. The numbers here have not been updated, they are the data as originally reported.

In August 2020 there was another review of the method of calculation of daily deaths, between 24 December 2020 and 4 January 2021 there was a delay in some reports, and in March 2021 the method in Scotland was changed. Since December 2021 the data have been more erratic. The definition of covid-19 deaths varies in different parts of the UK, and the counts aren’t reported daily.

Tags: Boom and bust, Coronavirus, covid-19